Outlook on El Nino
For those of us who can't wait for the snow to fly, this is an exciting time of year! It's a time for planning trips and dreaming up adventures near and far. It's also a time when weather experts share models and projections for the season to come. We often hear the words El Niño and La Niña thrown around but what do these patterns mean? El Niño and La Niña are opposing climate patterns that originate over the Pacific Ocean along the equator. These cycles occur every 2-7 years with their peak between December and April. During El Niño years, the eastern Pacific Ocean temperature warms by a persistent jetstream. This cycle is defined by low pressure and can result in warmer and drier winters with cold spells for ecosystems across the northwestern United States. La Niña cycles are defined by colder waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean as the result of a variable jet stream. This can lead to high- pressure systems and colder wetter winters in our region.
2023-2024 has been forecasted as an El Niño season. While on the surface that might seem like lamentable news, Sun Valley historically has seen little variation in average snowfall between El Niño cycles and a typical season. The influence of El Niño on the Wood River Valley can vary due to our position between the Smoky and Pioneer Mountains. While our local geography can change how this weather pattern affects us, a consistency that remains is how we often benefit most from southerly storm cycles. El Niño's relatively warmer conditions can mean increased moisture content in the storms that we experience this season in Idaho. More snow per storm? Yes, please! As for us heli ski enthusiasts, the potential for a drier winter means more time on skis and fewer down days. You'll want to make sure you've got your sunscreen packed! Keep in mind that our terrain in the western Smoky Mountains accumulates significant snowpack from the northwest flow that comes out of the Pacific Northwest. So, if the sagebrush is rearing its ugly head on Baldy, come join us for some powder in the Smokys!
In an article for Open Snow, forecaster Steve Stuebner summarized Idaho snowfall data for El Niño winters from the 80s to now. In the article, he concludes that " ... history tells us that Idaho tends to be right around average for snowfall during El Niño winters." One thing is for sure, it's time to get serious about strength training because, once the snow flies, it's off with the storage wax and on with our avy packs to hit the slopes. We can hardly wait!
